The prompt
Score 10 of 10, Excellent
Use it when You have a forecast with a range around it, and the people deciding from it need to understand what the range means and how to use it.
- {{audience}}
- {{decision}}
- {{forecast_output}}
- {{method_notes}}
- {{channel}}
Full prompt and why it works
Prompt
Explain the forecast below to {{audience}}, who are not analysts, so that they understand what the range means, why it is as wide as it is, and how to use it in the decision they face: {{decision}}. They will read this before the meeting where the decision is made, so it has to make sense without me there. The forecast output (the central figure, the range or ranges, and what kind of range each is): """ {{forecast_output}} """ How the forecast was made, the history it uses and its main assumptions: """ {{method_notes}} """ Where it will be read: {{channel}} Write it in this order: 1. The headline in one or two sentences: the most likely figure and the range, in plain words. For example: "We expect about [figure]. If the coming months behave like the past [period], there is an 80% chance the result lands between [low] and [high]." That example shows the form only; use the kind of range the output names. 2. Why the range is that wide: the main reasons from the method notes, such as how much the history varies, how far ahead we are looking, or an assumption that could move. 3. What the range does not cover: events outside the history, such as a new competitor or a price change, unless the notes include them. 4. How to use it in this decision: which end of the range matters more here and why, for example planning stock for the high end when running out costs more than holding extra, and the point at which we should look again. 5. One sentence I can say aloud in the meeting. Keep it under 350 words. Use plain words: if you need a term such as prediction interval or standard deviation, explain it in the same sentence or leave it out. Do not narrow the range, round it to look more certain, or present the central figure as a promise. Do not add figures that are not in the forecast output. A good explanation leaves the reader able to say, in their own words, what result would surprise us and what would not. If the output does not say what kind of range it shows (an 80% or 95% prediction interval, or a best and worst case someone chose), do not guess: ask, or write [CHECK: what the range means] in the headline. If the assumptions behind the forecast are not in the notes, say that the explanation cannot cover them.
Variables
- {{audience}}
- Who will read it, for example "the store managers" or "the executive team".
- {{decision}}
- What they are deciding, for example "how many seasonal staff to hire for December".
- {{forecast_output}}
- The forecast as produced: central figure, the range or ranges, the period, and the label on each range.
- {{method_notes}}
- How it was made: method or tool, how many periods of history, known data problems, and the assumptions it rests on.
- {{channel}}
- For example "an email before the planning meeting" or "one slide with speaker notes".
Why it works
- Who it's for. The explanation is tied to the decision in front of the readers, so it says which end of the range matters for them rather than explaining uncertainty in general.
- What to avoid. The range is never narrowed or rounded toward certainty, and no figure appears that the forecast output does not contain.
- If unsure. If the output does not say what kind of range it is, the headline carries a CHECK marker instead of a guessed interpretation.