thinkhard.SI

Prompt repository Research & learning

Trace a statistic to its original source before you repeat it

You saw a number in an article, deck or post and need to know where it came from and whether it still says what the original said.

Registry no.
RES-014
Collection
Research & learning
Laid out for
Any chat model
Score
10 out of 10
Blanks to fill
4
Added

Research & learningAny chat

The prompt

Score 10 of 10, Excellent

Use it when You saw a number in an article, deck or post and need to know where it came from and whether it still says what the original said.

  • {{statistic}}
  • {{where_seen}}
  • {{intended_use}}
  • {{source_text}}
Full prompt and why it works
Prompt
The statistic, exactly as I saw it: {{statistic}}
Where I saw it (publication, date, link if any): {{where_seen}}
How I want to use it: {{intended_use}}

Source text I have found so far (the article, the report it cites, the original study), pasted in order from where I saw it back toward the original:
"""
{{source_text}}
"""

Task:
Help me trace this statistic back to where it started and check whether the version I saw matches the original, so that I can decide whether to use it in {{intended_use}} and how to word it. Numbers drift as they are quoted: the year, the sample, the wording or the base changes. I need to see where.

Format:
1. The chain so far: each source in the text above, in order, with what it says about the number (quoted) and whom it credits.
2. Differences: every change between versions, for example "global" becoming "US", "up to 40%" becoming "40%", a 2019 survey presented as current, or a share of respondents presented as a share of all people.
3. Still to find: what is missing from the chain, and where the original is most likely to be published (for example a statistics office, a survey company or a journal), with search terms to use.
4. Verdict: one of Traced and matches, Traced but changed, Not yet traced, with one sentence of reasoning.
5. Safe wording: one sentence I could use today, with the attribution it needs, such as "A 2021 survey of 1,000 US office workers by [organization] found..." That sentence shows the form only.

Requirements:
- Under 400 words.
- Work only from the text above for what each source says. Do not name a specific report, page or author that is not in my text. If you recall the original yourself, you may mention it labeled "From memory, not checked", because I will have to confirm it before using it.
- Do not judge whether the statistic is true; judge whether the chain supports the version I saw.

If a source does not say where its number came from, mark that link "Not credited" and treat the chain as broken there. If I pasted nothing, skip steps 1 and 2 and give me the search plan, plus the questions to ask of each source I find: who measured it, when, how many people, and what exactly was asked.

Variables

{{statistic}}
The number and the words around it, copied exactly, for example "78% of employees say they would quit over a bad manager".
{{where_seen}}
Where you saw it, with the date and link if you have them.
{{intended_use}}
Where you want to use it, for example "a slide in our hiring proposal".
{{source_text}}
Text from each source you have found, in order, with its name and date. Write "none" if you have not looked yet.

Why it works

  • What to make. Listing every change between versions, from the year to the base, finds the drift that turns a narrow survey result into a broad claim.
  • If unsure. Anything recalled from memory is labeled "From memory, not checked" and the search plan names kinds of sources, never invented reports, so the trace cannot add a new error.
  • What good looks like. A three-way verdict and one sentence of safe wording with its attribution give you something you can use or drop today.

How to use it

  1. Press Fill in variables and type your details into each blank. What you type stays in this browser.
  2. Copy the filled prompt into the AI tool you already use, such as ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini, or open it in the Grader or the Prompt Tester here.
  3. Before you rely on it, try it on three or four real examples. The Prompt Tester runs them all at once and shows which ones go wrong.
Use it from code

Get this prompt as JSON from the free REST API, with your own text in the blanks, or let an AI assistant fetch it through the MCP server. No key.

curl -s https://thinkhard.si/api/v1/prompts/trace-statistic-to-source

With the MCP server added to Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor or VS Code, call get_prompt with {"prompt": "trace-statistic-to-source"}, or just ask for it by name.